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Second coming

The largest of Embraer’s second-generation aircraft, the E195-E2 will soon be delivered to first customer Azul. Angus Mackay and Stuart Rubin from ICF examine the market appeal
 

The Embraer E195-E2 is the largest aircraft of the newly introduced E2 family and is scheduled for first delivery this year. A re-engined variant of the popular Embraer E-Jet family of regional jets, E2 series is a family of single-aisle, short-to-medium-range regional aircraft composed of three variants: the E175-E2, E190-E2 and the E195-E2.

 

New features include the installation of new- generation, high bypass ratio geared turbofan (GTF) Pratt & Whitney PW1700G/1900G engines, new engine pylons, redesigned high aspect ratio wings that are uniquely designed to each aircraft in the family, new main landing gear to accommodate the larger diameter engines, improved Honeywell Primus Epic 2 avionics with large displays and touchscreen controls, as well as a new fly-by-wire system. Embraer expects these modifications to improve the E2 fuel burn per seat over the E1 by 16% for the E175-E2 and E190-E2, and by 23% for the E195-E2.

 

The first E2 (E190-E2) rolled out in February 2016, and made its maiden flight in May 2016. It was certified by ANAC, FAA and EASA in February 2018. With the E2 family, Embraer focuses on the higher end of the regional jet market by excluding the smaller E170 from the family, as well as through stretching the E175 by one additional row and the E195 by three additional rows, effectively bridging the gap between regional jets and smaller narrowbodies such as the Airbus A319.

 

The E195-E2 seats 120 passengers in a typical three-class configuration, and up to 146 passengers in a high-density single class configuration. Its range is 2,655 nm with a full load of passengers, and as such competes on shorter routes with the Airbus A318/319 and A220-300 by offering a similar passenger capacity albeit with a shorter range. Embraer, in its Market Outlook 2018-2037 forecasts deliveries of 8,230 jets with up to 150 seats. In terms of available markets, Embraer contends the E195-E2 provides capacity growth for current E-Jet operators and will be capable of achieving similar costs per seat of larger re-engined narrowbody aircraft, with significantly lower costs per trip, thus creating new opportunities for lower-risk development of new markets and fleet optimisation by airlines.

 

Especially developed for low cost operations in mid-density markets, the type becomes a natural successor to older, less fuel-efficient Airbus A319 and Boeing 737-700 aircraft. Additional opportunities for sales of the E195-E2 may lie with operators looking to up-gauge from larger variants of Bombardier’s CRJ series. The E195-E2 first flew in March 2017 and Embraer expects the type to enter service later in 2019with launch customer Azul. The order book for the E195-E2 has been steadily increasing since 2014, reaching a total of 101 firm orders as of January 2019.

 

In the meantime, the firm order backlog for the E195-E1 has been steadily declining since 2016 with no new major orders since then. In July 2018, Boeing announced a deal to purchase a controlling stake in the commercial aircraft arm of Embraer. This followed the decision by the Airbus Group to purchase a 50.01% in Bombardier’s C Series programme, since then renamed as the Airbus A220. Boeing’s move could help Embraer improve its presence in the US market and fight off competition from the A220 series which has already secured major orders from Delta, Moxy, and JetBlue, the latter an operator of the Embraer E190-E1.

 

As of January 2019, the order book for Embraer E195 series was mostly composed of E2 generation aircraft, with 101 (97%), versus only three E1 orders (3%). The most recent order from Binter Canarias for five E195-E2 aircraft came in November 2018. Across all the E-Jet product line, Embraer booked only 38 E2 variant orders in 2018 - out of a total 207 firm orders - with the majority of customers opting for the Embraer E175-E1, reflecting continued demand in the U.S. regional airline market. Some residual uncertainty in the market following the Boeing announcement, and an historic reticence on the part of regional jet airlines to order prior to proof in-service of design objectives exemplified by operator concerns relating to the P&W GTF engine are considered key drivers. 


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